I don't want to win a lottery

What is man's greatest weakness. No, its not sex. No, its not even gambling.  It is his uncanny ability to fall for every "get rich quick" scheme.

Take the case of the collapse of the Saradha  (and probably numerous other such schemes) in West Bengal. This was a classic Ponzi scheme. Investors were attracted by fantastic returns (15-50% !!!). The early investors were paid off with money collected from subsequent idiots. Bingo. An avalanche started. Two years on, it has collapsed leading to much hand wringing and vociferous shouts of indignation.

What attracted my attention was not the scheme per se. They are dime a dozen. Remember the Emu farm scheme a little while ago in Tamil Nadu. Emu farming I believe - never mind that not one soul who put money into it had seen an emu in his life. But what has really got my attention is the response to the affair after it broke news.

There has been much clamour for regulation of such funds and criticism of governments for not regulating them well enough. Ramamritham must be rubbing his hands in glee at this new opportunity that has fallen into his lap. They want the death penalty for the owner of Saradha. A few people who have lost money have committed suicide. The loud lady who holds sway in the part of the country where this mess happened has announced a Rs 500 cr package to reimburse those who lost out . Never mind that the state is plain broke - there isn't money to pay salaries of government employees. The economically challenged lady, plumbed record depths by saying that she is going to  fund this by raising taxes on cigarettes and then exhorted her fellow citizens to smoke more !!!!! I kid you not.

The ancient fossils who are in opposition to the shrill lady, obviously oppose this, but their alternative is that those who lost must be reimbursed by auctioning the property of the owners of the chit funds. No wonder that this state has little hope of any advancement, if it is blessed with such wonderfully economically literate leaders.

Not one word has been said against the  lot who invested in such schemes. Pray ; why reimburse the clowns who lost money in this. They are no saints. They were simply attracted because somebody promised incredibly high returns. Any human with an ounce of intelligence must pause and think whether such returns are possible. Where will they come from. There is no return without risk and the correlation is direct. So if you let greed rule you, then don't cry when you lose your shirt. You deserve to be fried. 

One of the great rules of life is that winning a lottery is actually a curse. Getting rich quick is the surest way to misery. There is plenty of research to show that the majority of lottery winners do not find happiness.

The way to a better life is to get rich, of course. But slowly. Through hard work. Through initiative, through endeavour, through education, through innovation and through blood, sweat and tears. That is what brings true wealth. And happiness.

By the way, talking of Ponzi schemes - the biggest Ponzi scheme of all is property.  The only difference is that it operates on a time scale so large that an entire generation can become rich before it starts to unfold.  Pause and think about it. Every one of us gloats about the land/flat/house we bought some time ago and how its value now has an added zero to it. If you really think about it, its just another Ponzi scheme - some sucker will be left holding the curse sometime into the future. 

Grant me Lord, the ability to do a hard day's work, to make money by ethical and honest means, the strength not to be carried away by temptation, the courage not to want to get rich quick and some compassion for those who weakened and got burned. Compassion yes, but bailout, NO.

"Lala" Infosys

Infosys was , is , and will be a great company. Unarguably. But even great organisations suffer from malaise. Surprisingly, Infosys suffers from the malaise that you would not normally attribute to it - the Lala problem. Yes, I know, I am throwing mud at a great company, but you have to expect it if you lose 20% of your market value in one day.

Wait a minute. Isn't Infosys one of the most professional of companies ? A company that sets the standard for corporate governance. The company that raised the bar on ethical business. The company with the middle class values ? All true. But Infosys suffers from the same problem that family run companies have - the company is handed down from one  "family" man to another.

Only in Infosys' case, the "family" is not blood related, but the group of founders who set up Infosys. The peerless Narayana Murthy established it. The relentless Nandan Nilekani drove it to the status of a world leader. Kris Gopalakrishnan then took up the baton and reaped the boom years. And then , just like in a family,  the company was handed over from brother to brother, to Shibulal, the last of the founders. And as we all know, second and third generation families are never the same as the first generation.

In all this, quite a few senior managers stepped away, knowing they had reached the end of the road - not just that they could never lead the company, but that in the set way of things, they had done all that they could.

Infosys is not known in the market as a great company to work for. This, despite its undoubted brilliance, its strong values, its untarnished reputation and its incredibly strong balance sheet.  It simply does not attract the best quality talent that a leader in the industry should. And it loses talent far faster.

Calling it a "Lala company" is an insult to a great institution. But a staunch admirer of the company, and its founders that I am , I am usurping the right to be unfair.  A classic response of an organisation that is in the situation that Infosys is in now, would be to make an acquisition - especially since there is a mountain of cash burning a hole in its pocket. If its does that, it surely is then a Lala company. For that's what Lalas do.

Infosys will bounce back. It is suffering from the middle age blues - as all of us in our personal lives do too. It has reached middle age perhaps a little earlier than its peers - even in that it is a trail blazer. But its bounce will be faster if the founders leave. Lock their doors and go.

Its time for Infosys Gen 2 to emerge. One where there are no more "Lalas". 

An unfair post this one. For sure.  But you are only unfair to somebody you admire.

The economics of an election

My state is coming into election time. The politics of it - who will win; who will lose, etc is beyond the purview of this blog. But this blog will certainly muse on the economics behind it.

I am foxed as to why anybody wants to stand for any election - for the economics behind this is akin to a Las Vegas casino. On a conservative estimate, each candidate would spend about Rs 15 crores in each assembly seat ( see this speech as evidence of such numbers). More than three quarters of it is not for campaigning, but to bribe the voters (shame on you and me). Traditionally it used to be just cash and liquor.  But apparently now even water drums, watches, sarees and T shirts feature, as evidenced by this photograph and this article from The Hindu today.

The number of assembly constituencies in Karnataka is 224. There are four political formations in the fray. So that makes for 900 serious candidates. At Rs 15 crores per candidate, that amounts to an expenditure of Rs 13,500 crores .  Karnataka's GDP is about Rs 4,60,000 crores. So, something like 3% of GDP will be spent by candidates - that by any stretch of imagination is a staggering sum.

As JP Narayan, says in the video I refer to earlier, you have to spend this money to stand a chance. Spending it does not guarantee victory, but not spending it guarantees defeat. So, if you stand, you have to spend.

Consider for a moment, the ability to have a sum of Rs 13500 crores created for spending. Since much of the spending is illegal, the money has also to be generated by questionable means. It is actually not so easy to siphon away 3% of GDP - even corruption has its limits. Add the problem of keeping Rs 13500 crores in cash. If it is all packed in Rs 500 notes, each crore weighs 34 kgs. So Rs 13,500 crores weighs 460 tonnes - that is 46 lorry loads. You can't brazenly transport 46 lorry loads around - some will be stolen, some will be seized by the Election Commission officials, etc etc. And consider the logistics of buying so much liquor (and water drums). Its a mammoth logistics exercise and all has to be done surreptitiously.

And there can be only one winner in each constituency. What about the three blokes who lost. They have washed Rs 45 crores down the drain. They will virtually be bankrupted, for there is no way to earn it back until the next elections and , even then, only if they win. For the winner, he has to recoup a decent return on his investment - let us say he must make Rs 60 crores - to recoup a return on his investment and to create the capital for the next election. That is also not easy -  each winner to make Rs 60 crores is not an easy task.  A few can make that, but for everybody to make this sort of an amount is a tall order, however brazen the corruption is. And this alone is not enough, for each of his hangers on wants to make money as well. 

If you put your money in a bank deposit you can make 50% in 5 years, virtually risk free. With a little more luck, in the stock market or in gold, you can double it in 5 years. So, why take such wild risks for relatively meager returns and the possibility of losing it all. Obviously economics is not the strong point of those who stand for elections.

Many of the citizens are disgusted with those who would like to be our elected representatives. The best way to give them a big knock on their head is to vote such that the government will fall every year and elections are needed. Three elections in three years is enough to bankrupt them all. And then, maybe fresh air will emerge.

What on earth is a KRA ?

I am in trouble because my KRA with CDSL consequent to having submitted some change of KYC, is apparently pending, which I have no recollection of. Therefore I am stuck with my DP who is quoting arcane SEBI rules to make my life miserable.

 

If you don't understand one word of all this, welcome to the club. I don't understand it either ! And I am supposed to know something of finance !!

 

This perfectly sums up the status of how consumer unfriendly the financial sector in India has become. Try doing anything - opening a bank account, or buying a mutual fund  or even changing your address. You will tear your hair in frustration. Such is the state of affairs.

 

This is all because Ramamritham and his political masters have , over the last five years, exclusively been framing rules for catching Kasab.  The starting assumption is that everybody is a Kasab unless they prove otherwise. Rules and procedures have become so complex that an honest simple  man has no chance of understanding, let alone complying.  No wonder that the percentage of the population which even has a bank account is miniscule - fat chance the RBI has of achieving financial inclusion. To understand why they are failing, all they have to do is go and try to open a bank account themselves.

 

I have a Passport Number, a Aaadhar Number, a PAN, a DIN, an IEC, a Cust ID, a DL No, a ST No. It appears that is not enough for Ramamritham. I now need a KRA.

 

Laws must not be framed for the law breaker. They have to be framed for the vast majority who will follow the law if given a chance. Yes, crooks must be caught, but it is even more important to make it simple for the 99% of the population who are not crooks.

 

A beautiful example of killing an entire industry is what they have done to Internet Cafes. In a country like India with a miniscule computer population, but  burgeoning educated class, you would expect a zillion internet cafes at every street corner. No chance. Have you wondered why ? This is what an idiot who wants to start an internet café has to do.

 

• Every cyber cafe owner has to register and obtain a  licence
• Every user who comes to the café has to prove his ID. 
• The cyber cafe owner has to maintain a log of every user, his ID, his photo, and sundry particulars
• The owner has also to maintain a log and submit the return of the log each month of
• History of websites accessed using computer resource at cyber cafe
• Logs of proxy server installed at cyber cafe
• Mail server logs
• Logs of network devices such as router, switches, systems etc. installed
  at cyber cafe
• Partitions of Cubicles inside the Cyber Cafe should not exceed four and half feet in height from the floor level. The screen of all computers shall face the common open space of the Cyber Cafe.
• Cyber Cafe owner must ensure that all the computers are equipped with    safety / filtering software so as to the avoid access to the websites relating to     pornography, obscenity, terrorism and other objectionable materials. Cyber Cafe shall take sufficient precautions to ensure that their computer resource are not utilized for any illegal activity.
• They will be visited and inspected every now and then to ensure that they are complying with rules (of course, those visiting are extremely honest and straightforward and there is no question of a bribe)

Now you know why there are no internet cafes to be found anywhere. I am yet to determine whether they need a KRA too !!

Eyes Right

 There are times when you have to feel good about India. In the prevailing atmosphere of extreme negativity, it is easy to fall into the trap of despair. Patriotism may be the last refuge of the scoundrel (no thanks Samuel Johnson), but it has its uses and I don't mind being a scoundrel. The Republic Day parade is one such occasion, to feel good.

I know very few watch the parade these days, but it is an eminently watchable spectacle. Other countries put on a show like this - the Bastille Day parade in France and the Victory Day parade in Russia, being the more prominent. But the Indian parade is extremely impressive and can raise goose pimples, especially if you can understand the honour and significance of it.

It all begins with the laying of the wreath at the Amar Jawan Jyothi - the tomb of the Unknown Soldier and the sounding of the Last Post - a tribute to the fallen. The Parade itself is rich in tradition. The President's bodyguard gives the order for the National Salute and you cannot but help feel a lump in the throat as the National Anthem in played. After the Parade Commanders, come the living recipients of the Param Vir Chakra and the Ashok Chakra - India's highest gallantry medals.  This year it was nice to see all the three living PVC holders in the parade - Subedar Major Bana Singh, Naik Subedar Yogendra Singh Yadav and Havaldar Sanjay Kumar. The 61st cavalry often leads out the marching contingents - this is probably the last Cavalry regiment anywhere in the world ; old traditions kept alive.  The impeccably turned out Army contingents lead the parade - this year the famous Maratha Light Infantry, the Dogra Regiment, the Kumaon Regiment, the Garhwal Rifles were all there - regiments with traditions going back 200 years. The Air Force contingent had a surprise with Flight Lieutenant Heena Pore leading - probably the first time a lady officer was the commandant . When the camera cut to probably her family wildly cheering, you could not have failed to be moved. Contingents vie with each other to win the best marching contingent award. To me the highlight is often the NCC boys and the NCC Girls contingent ; when she gives the call to salute the President, you can't quell the surge of emotion.

I normally discount the cultural shows that follow ; the military parade is the highlight. Its is an honour to march - if you wish to know how much of an honour it is and how much of training and selection precedes it, read this lovely account by Smriti Rao.

The dampener is the extremely poor coverage by Doordarshan. For a lesson on how not to cover an occasion of such grandeur, turn to Doordarshan. They have to cut all the time to show the faces of sundry VIPs - this being Delhi after all. How can you cut away, when the commandant's deep bass voice is giving the command for the salute. They couldn't even get the national anthem right - there was static and blackouts. Yuk !

But despite Doordarshan, this is an event that can make riveting viewing. You can watch it here, if you like.

Which is why, I say - I am sorry Colleen Braganza - I simply cannot stomach your article in the DNA.  There is a time to protest and make your voice heard. There is also a time to honour and cherish.

Coffee is bad

What does Ramamritham have against coffee ? I would have thought the caricature of Ramaritham included a cup of coffee and The Hindu. Yet here's this venerable gentleman having an angst against coffee . Why ?

I am referring to IKEA's application to open retail stores across India. You may recall that the move to allow foreign owned retailers to set up shop in India is a recent one (Didi notwithstanding).  IKEA has been one of the first to submit their proposal, willing to bring it no less than Rs 10,000 crores of investment. You would have thought that they would be welcomed with open arms  - it is difficult to see boxed furniture being a threat to national sovereignty. But what they got was not a red carpet - instead they were treated with the full attention of Ramamritham. (in the guise of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board - FIPB)

I am no fan of IKEA stores. If you've been to one, they are all predictably the same format. You are forced to walk along one km of winding corridors that entirely destroy your sense of direction. You have to gaze at their full force of merchandise even if you want to buy a safety pin. After all those wanderings you are dying to sit down and rest your aching legs. Dutifully at the end of the trail you can buy a cup of coffee. Their format world over is the same.

Its the cup of coffee that has aroused Ramamritham's ire. Believe it or not, Ramamritham has turned down IKEA's application saying that they could not have a coffee shop - it appears that would become multi brand retail as the coffee is not IKEA branded coffee and hence would fall foul of the rules. Never mind the Rs 10,000 crores investment. FIPB is disallowing the proposal objecting to the coffee shop.

Finally the Commerce Minister had to intervene and suggest to Ramamritham that this is utterly nonsensical. He has asked IKEA to submit their proposal again and has promised them that he is partial to coffee.

Long long ago, when P Chidambaram was still a starry eyed reformer , he summoned a character called the Controller of Imports and Exports ( a terror those days) and asked him what he did. The worthy launched an impassioned plea as to how important and onerous his role was. PC's riposte was that he could perhaps understand that he had a role to play regarding imports, but pray, what was he doing trying to control exports ?? Within a few months he simply abolished the post.

I suggest he does a similar hatchet job on the FIPB. They perform no useful role. Open up investment in every sector barring maybe defence (even there there are arguments to  opening up for investment). Remember opening up for foreign investment does not mean that they can violate the law of the land. That provides the country ample protection against misbehaviour.

The only way to deal with nonsensical behaviour of objecting to the coffee shop is to abolish Ramamritham entirely.  Can Anand Sharma, the Commerce Minister, take a leaf out of his old predecessor and abolish the FIPB ?

PS :Newcomers to this blog who may not have been introduced to Ramamritham may get acquainted here.

Cash transfers instead of subsidies

India is embarking on a major revamp of its social security system - replacing subsidised food, fertiliser, fuel, etc etc with direct cash transfers to the bank accounts of the "poor". Is this good or bad ?

The current system involves heavily subsidised foodgrain, fertilisers, fuel, etc being made available to ration card holders through the public distribution system. This suffers from a whole host of problems. Bribery, corruption, pilferage, etc ensure that only a fraction of the stuff ends up in the hands of the targeted people.  In some areas like fuel, cooking gas cylinders are widely misused and the diesel subsidy lands into the pockets of rich car owners. The waste is so incredible that something ought to be done.

The solution proposed is to eliminate all subsidies progressively and instead simply transfer cash by electronic transfers to bank accounts of the target population. Initially it will cover various anti poverty schemes, then extend to cooking gas and kerosene and only finally to food and fertiliser. The Aadhar scheme is intended to enable foolproof identification. This way middlemen and cheats are largely eliminated. The poor use this money to buy their requirements from normal shops selling products at market prices.

The scheme has lots of advantages. Firstly corruption will go down, although it will not be eliminated. The middlemen taking cuts will be put largely out of business. The country's subsidy bill will drastically fall - as the waste will significantly reduce. The entire rotten public distribution system can be disbanded (although it works quite well in states like Tamil Nadu and Chattisgarh).  Today's technology can ensure that fraud and stealing can be drastically reduced.

However, my worry is that once cash reaches the intended family, what will they use it on. The problem is that their buying behaviour is not predictable or controllable. Undoubtedly many men will use this money to drink . Families will use this money for atrocious causes such as dowry, or  to show status. The brilliant book, Poor Economics, draws on extensive research to prove how their decisions might not seem rational. Research shows, even with present incomes, the poor could spend 30% more on food, if they cut out liquor and tobacco.  When they buy food, the choices are not based on calories or nutrition, but on taste and style. On the medical front, they shun expenditure on low cost preventive measures like mosquito nets or chlorine tablets, even when provided free, and instead go to the local quack for a costly useless injection.

Of course, it is not for me, or anybody else, to prescribe what any individual wishes to spend money on. But I certainly have a problem if my tax rupees  go to fund drinking liquor.

Cash transfers have worked in some other countries, notably the Bolsa Familia in Brazil. But this is a conditional transfer scheme - they get a small amount of money ($12 a month) if  the children stay in school, mothers attend pre natal care, etc etc. India plans to give some $70 a month or so as a straight dole.

On balance cash transfers appears a good thing, but it is not an altogether perfect solution and needs to be implemented with care (not gunghoism). It is wise to recall how Kamaraj in the 1960s raised the literacy levels in Tamil Nadu. With great insight he introduced the mid day meal scheme. Families sent children to school so that they could have a square meal. I doubt the move would have been that effective if he had instead given cash for them to buy a meal.

Grow, baby, grow - all the guar you can

I don't know what to make of this story. An economics soap opera ? How the most unexpected things can happen  ? How sometimes prosperity can hit you from the strangest of directions ? Read on - judge for yourself.

The story starts in a very boring manner. Everybody knows Americans guzzle gas. With the Sheikhs turning the screws, Americans are feeling the pinch. Ouch - the price of oil is hurting. Drill baby drill, is fine, but oil is, alas, not to be found. Need new forms of cheap energy so that Americans can continue to guzzle away. Suddenly they discovered a new "source" - Shale gas.  Apparently natural gas is  found in rocks called shales. And apparently shale gas is rather plentiful in the US. Wonder of wonders, use of shale gas even releases lower greenhouse gases than evil Oil.. Voila, the new gold rush is on. 

All very good. What's new. This sort of thing happens all the time. The real interesting bit is that, in order to extract this gas, you have to do "hydraulic fracturing" or "fracking". Without getting too technical, an essential ingredient in this process is an obscure agricultural product called guar gum. You simply can't extract the gas without guar gum ! Guar gum is derived from the , rather ordinary, guar bean.

Cut to Basni, on the outskirts of Jodhpur in Rajasthan state in India. This is a drought prone area, near the desert. The sight of fat , sweaty Americans is not new in this area as they come to tour the Thar desert and see the palaces and forts of Rajasthan. But suddenly the villagers started to see far more Americans than usual. This lot was different. They did not want to see forts or palaces. They wanted to buy all the guar you had !

You see, Rajasthan is the guar producing capital of the world. The farmers here are mostly poor - this is after all desert area. They have been cultivating guar for centuries to feed their cattle. For some strange reason guar doesn't grow well anywhere else in the world. 90% of guar is grown in India - the balance 10% in neighbouring Pakistan. Some 70-80% of guar in India is grown in Rajasthan.

It was, as if, money was raining from the sky. Guar used to sell at Rs 10 a kilo. At Rs 40, the farmer made a nice profit.  In December last year it touched Rs 70. And in March, this year,  it touched an impossible Rs 300 !!

Farmers who were in debt , or dirt poor, are suddenly seeing untold riches.  They've built a house. They've bought colour TVs. Two wheelers are plentiful - even the odd car is seen. Thousands of farmers have suddenly been lifted out of poverty into, what for them, is a quality of life they could not have even dreamt about. Guar gum is suddenly, back gold. The largest Indian agricultural export last year by far, more than basmati, more than cotton, was guar gum !

Of course, it has all the makings of a stampede. Everybody, man, woman and dog, is trying to grow guar.  Factories have sprouted adding crazy capacity to extract gum from the guar beans. Traders, middlemen and the usual scoundrels have descended to trade on the guar market - there was so much of the Wild Wild West going on that the government has banned the futures market in guar.  There has also been much stockpiling by the energy firms that the next season demand for guar might plummet. Lots of punters will burn their hands.

But for the next few years at least, the trend is inexorable. Shale Gas will be an important source of energy in the future. The largest reserves are in China, another energy guzzling economy. Nobody has yet found a way to extract this gas without guar gum. Nobody has also found a way to grow this economically outside of Rajasthan. So there is much prosperity waiting in store for the agriculturists of Rajasthan. Its a great story - those hardy souls deserve every bit of it. However you could be forgiven for some rather puzzled faces as to how come money is raining from the sky when even water doesn't. And the even more puzzled stare of their cow which is wondering, whatever happened to the guar bean it used to chew contentedly, not so long ago.

47% vs 97%

Mitt Romney is in a  soup over his 47% remark. In some remarks he made at a private meeting he said that 47% of Americans do not pay income tax (fact) and implied that these were scroungers (rubbish). But he was factually accurate in that 47% of Americans do indeed not pay income tax - although to be fair about that half of that lot do pay payroll taxes which is a form of income tax meant for funding social security and Medicare.

The purpose of this post is not to wade into the political controversy. But simply to point out the fact that if Romney were in India, he would say 97% of the population does not pay income tax. That's right - only 2.8% of Indians pay any income tax .

That's not to say 97% of the population does not pay any tax at all. Indirect taxes like VAT, Sales Tax, Octroi and a whole host of devilish taxes are levied on everything. Even a beggar buying beedis is paying all these taxes. But income tax, the largest revenue earning component of the budget is paid by only 2.8% of Indians.

Of course, this is a headline grabbing statistic that somewhat obscures the facts. India is a young country with a large number of children. They obviously are not meant to pay taxes (although I am somewhat loath to mention this as Ramamritham might pounce on the idea and design a tax for them). But clearly there is something very wrong in the Indian taxation system.

Surely so much of India is not dirt poor. The fact is that lots of people dodge taxes. Perhaps the true number of those who should be paying taxes is three times this number. Still, even if you say by rigorous enforcement of the law the number of tax payers would rise to say 9% - three times the current number, even then this is awfully small. How can a country which wants freebies and subsidies for everybody be financed largely by just 10% of its population.

Three things are blindingly obvious

- Economic growth for everybody should be the single most important priority of the government and society ; millions must be given the opportunity to earn enough income that they pay taxes. If ever there was a case for learning from the China model, this is it. Get rich first; then worry about income distribution.

- Tax evasion is clearly rampant. Here Ramamritham is indeed trying hard, but the scale of the problem beggars belief

- Tax exemption for agricultural income and long term capital gains has to go. If you earn sufficient income, whatever the source may be, you have to pay income tax.

You can only soak the 3% so much.